Origination Model Picks.
Built From the Ground Up.
Hand-built origination models that consistently beat the market. We find our own true fair value with no top-down market inputs, then bet the games where the book has it wrong. Real money on every play, right alongside you.
Projects scores from play-by-play drive data using field position expected points curves and team ODE/DDE efficiency ratings. Edges on moneyline, spread, and totals.
Iteratively-adjusted offensive and defensive drive efficiency with expected points regression. 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game for spread, ML, and totals.
Tempo-adjusted four-factors with player efficiency ratings and portal tracking. 10K+ sims per game originate independent spread lines.
Three XGBoost models project pace, home PPP, and away PPP from 65+ features. Retrained weekly on expanding data.
19 quantile XGBoost models build full scoring distributions from 40+ features. Bayesian-calibrated probabilities vs live sportsbook odds.
Player minutes and negative-binomial scoring distributions roll up into team totals, adjusted for opponent defense and playoff leverage. 10K Monte Carlo sims originate moneyline, spread, and total.
Pitcher K props priced from individual batter-pitcher matchups that books don't model at this depth. Each plate appearance is priced separately against the day's lineup, finding edges in mismatches that aggregate stats and recent form obscure. Live in the 2026 season now; the 2025 debut is the completed track record.
SP hits allowed over/unders and batter hits props, priced from pitch-type contact matchups that books don't replicate. Finds edges where book lines are set around ERA and batting average while specific Statcast matchups tell a different story.
Every plate appearance vs. the starter is priced from the K and hits models, then 25K sims of innings 1-5 build a run distribution and a fair ±0.5 first-5 run line.
No-run-first-inning props derived from first-batter matchups, park factors, and first-inning tendencies per starter.
13 quantile XGBoost models for regulation goal distributions, plus a separate overtime edge model trained on 3v3 dynamics. Poisson combination with multi-layer calibration.
Two-layer SG model: decay-weighted round-level baselines + ElasticNet context adjustments. 50K Student-t tournament sims for outrights, top finishes, and matchups.
Six years of model development, priced from raw data with no reference to market consensus. We track edge through closing line value, whether the line moves toward our side after a pick posts. Trusted by hundreds of users who want to see the process behind every number.
Our Models
Every algorithm built from raw data, not reverse-engineered from market odds or consensus lines.
NFL
- Drive-level field position analysis with expected points curves
- Team ODE/DDE efficiency ratings adjusted for opponent strength
- Home-field advantage multipliers and pace-based possession counts
NCAAF
- Iteratively-adjusted drive efficiency removing opponent strength bias
- Expected points regression from historical field position data
- 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game with score distributions
CBB Spreads
- Tempo-adjusted four-factors with player efficiency and portal tracking
- Conference strength indexing and true home court quantification
- 10,000+ simulations per game for independent spread origination
CBB Totals
- Three XGBoost models: pace, home PPP, and away PPP independently
- 65+ features: tempo control, four-factors, schedule context
- Weekly retraining on expanding historical windows
NBA Props
- 19 quantile XGBoost models build full scoring distributions
- 40+ features: usage rates, matchup pace, defensive rating, rest
- Bayesian calibration layer maps raw probabilities to fair odds
K Props
- PA-level XGBoost pricing each batter individually, weighted by pitcher pitch mix
- Lineup projection engine with recency-weighted slot frequencies and platoon splits
- Beta-Binomial dispersion + NegBin distribution for accurate P(over/under)
Hits Props
- SP hits allowed over/unders and batter hits props from one model run
- Pitch-type contact matchup pricing against the day's specific lineup
- Beta posterior Monte Carlo with game_sigma for realistic tail variance
NHL
- 13 quantile XGBoost models for regulation goal distributions
- Separate overtime edge model trained on 3v3 dynamics and goalie pressure
- Poisson combination with Platt-scaled calibration and tie-inflation
PGA Tour
- Two-layer strokes-gained: decay-weighted baselines + ElasticNet adjustments
- Course-fit, weather, grass type, and similar-course cosine matching
- 50,000 Student-t tournament sims with AR(1) round correlation
Why Whizard
We're not a pick service that stumbled into a market. Every sport here is one we actively bet. These models were built because we needed them, and they're shared because they work.
Origination, Not Consensus
Most services repackage lines from sharp books or run basic screen filters against the market.
Whizard builds projections from raw play-by-play, pitch-level, and shot-level data. Lines are originated independently before comparing to the market.
CLV-Verified, Not Just W/L
Record screenshots and highlight reels are easy to cherry-pick. Win rate alone tells you nothing about edge quality.
Every play is tracked against closing line value. If a pick consistently beats the close, the edge is real regardless of short-term variance.
We Bet This Ourselves
Most services sell picks in markets they don't personally touch. The incentive is subscriptions, not edge.
Every market Whizard covers is one we actively bet. Our own money rides on the same picks you get. Your results are our results.
One Core Per Sport, Not a Black Box
Most services treat every market as a separate black box with no shared logic or accountability across models.
Each sport has one core quantitative model, the same framework applied consistently, extended to each market within that sport. You can trace every output back to its inputs.
Pre-Market Timing
Subscription alert services release picks after lines have already moved, leaving subscribers chasing stale numbers.
Projections are released early enough to capture soft openers. The goal is to beat the market to the number, not react to it.
Full Transparency
Black box services hide methodology and cherry-pick results. Bad months quietly disappear from the record.
Complete play history is public, wins and losses, every month. The process and results are fully auditable.
One subscription. Every pick we make, delivered to Discord the moment we post it. Cancel anytime. At this ROI, one winning week covers the cost. We bet alongside every subscriber.
Get All ModelsVerified Results
Every play tracked. Every closing line logged. When lines move toward our number after release, it confirms the edge was real.
NFL
NCAAF
CBB Spreads
CBB Totals
NBA Props
WNBA
MLB
K Props
Hits Props
MLB First 5
NHL
Year-Over-Year Profit (All Models Combined)
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All Access: Run the Numbers
All models. Every sport. 8.7% historical ROI across 125+ weekly plays, select your unit size and project 4-week returns.
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- Every active model delivered to Discord
- Pre-market origination plays
- Full model breakdowns & edge explanations
- Picks delivered via Discord
- Discord community access
- Verified CLV tracking
Pick Your Sport
Just want one? Every pick delivered straight to Discord.
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Picks delivered via Discord
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Picks delivered via Discord
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
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