Origination Model Picks.
Built From the Ground Up.
Seven sport-specific models built from scratch, bet with real money, and refined every season. Picks delivered to Discord the moment they post. We bet alongside every subscriber.
Projects scores from play-by-play drive data using field position expected points curves and team ODE/DDE efficiency ratings. Edges on moneyline, spread, and totals.
Iteratively-adjusted offensive and defensive drive efficiency with expected points regression. 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game for spread, ML, and totals.
Tempo-adjusted four-factors with player efficiency ratings and portal tracking. 10K+ sims per game originate independent spread lines.
Three XGBoost models project pace, home PPP, and away PPP from 65+ features. Retrained weekly on expanding data.
19 quantile XGBoost models build full scoring distributions from 40+ features. Bayesian-calibrated probabilities vs live sportsbook odds.
XGBoost predicts pitcher Ks using decay-weighted pitch metrics (SwStr%, O-Contact%, arsenal run values), opposing lineup K-rates, and park factors. Edges vs sportsbook lines.
First-five-inning lines originated from the starting pitcher model. Isolates the pitching matchup from bullpen variance.
No-run-first-inning props derived from first-batter matchups, park factors, and first-inning tendencies per starter.
13 quantile XGBoost models for regulation goal distributions, plus a separate overtime edge model trained on 3v3 dynamics. Poisson combination with multi-layer calibration.
Two-layer SG model: decay-weighted round-level baselines + ElasticNet context adjustments. 50K Student-t tournament sims for outrights, top finishes, and matchups.
Six years of model development, priced from raw data with no reference to market consensus. We track edge through closing line value, the same metric professional bettors use to confirm a real advantage. Trusted by hundreds of users who want a process, not a promise.
Our Models
Every algorithm built from raw data, not reverse-engineered from market odds or consensus lines.
NFL
- Drive-level field position analysis with expected points curves
- Team ODE/DDE efficiency ratings adjusted for opponent strength
- Home-field advantage multipliers and pace-based possession counts
NCAAF
- Iteratively-adjusted drive efficiency removing opponent strength bias
- Expected points regression from historical field position data
- 10,000 Monte Carlo sims per game with score distributions
CBB Spreads
- Tempo-adjusted four-factors with player efficiency and portal tracking
- Conference strength indexing and true home court quantification
- 10,000+ simulations per game for independent spread origination
CBB Totals
- Three XGBoost models: pace, home PPP, and away PPP independently
- 65+ features: tempo control, four-factors, schedule context
- Weekly retraining on expanding historical windows
NBA Props
- 19 quantile XGBoost models build full scoring distributions
- 40+ features: usage rates, matchup pace, defensive rating, rest
- Bayesian calibration layer maps raw probabilities to fair odds
K Props
- XGBoost on decay-weighted pitch metrics: SwStr%, O-Contact%, arsenal RVs
- Opposing lineup strikeout rates and swing discipline profiles
- Park-specific strikeout factors normalized across venues
NHL
- 13 quantile XGBoost models for regulation goal distributions
- Separate overtime edge model trained on 3v3 dynamics and goalie pressure
- Poisson combination with Platt-scaled calibration and tie-inflation
PGA Tour
- Two-layer strokes-gained: decay-weighted baselines + ElasticNet adjustments
- Course-fit, weather, grass type, and similar-course cosine matching
- 50,000 Student-t tournament sims with AR(1) round correlation
Why Whizard
We're not a pick service that stumbled into a market. Every sport here is one we actively bet. These models were built because we needed them, and they're shared because they work.
Origination, Not Consensus
Most services repackage lines from sharp books or run basic screen filters against the market.
Whizard builds projections from raw play-by-play, pitch-level, and shot-level data. Lines are originated independently before comparing to the market.
CLV-Verified, Not Just W/L
Record screenshots and highlight reels are easy to cherry-pick. Win rate alone tells you nothing about edge quality.
Every play is tracked against closing line value. If a pick consistently beats the close, the edge is real regardless of short-term variance.
We Bet This Ourselves
Most services sell picks in markets they don't personally touch. The incentive is subscriptions, not edge.
Every market Whizard covers is one we actively bet. Skin in the game isn't a selling point, it's the entire point. Your results are our results.
One Core Per Sport, Not a Black Box
Most services treat every market as a separate black box with no shared logic or accountability across models.
Each sport has one core quantitative model, the same framework applied consistently, extended to each market within that sport. You can trace every output back to its inputs.
Pre-Market Timing
Subscription alert services release picks after lines have already moved, leaving subscribers chasing stale numbers.
Projections are released early enough to capture soft openers. The goal is to beat the market to the number, not react to it.
Full Transparency
Black box services hide methodology and cherry-pick results. Bad months quietly disappear from the record.
Complete play history is public. Wins and losses. Every month tracked. The process and results are fully auditable.
One subscription. Every pick we make, delivered to Discord the moment we post it. Cancel anytime. At this ROI, one winning week covers the cost. We bet alongside every subscriber.
Get All ModelsVerified Results
Every play tracked. Every closing line logged. When lines move toward our number after release, it confirms the edge was real.
NFL
NCAAF
CBB Spreads
CBB Totals
NBA Props
MLB
K Props
NHL
Year-Over-Year Profit (All Models Combined)
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Algorithm-driven picks across every sport we cover. Bundle for the best value or pick your model.
All Access: Run the Numbers
All models. Every sport. 8.7% historical ROI across 125+ weekly plays, select your unit size and project 4-week returns.
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- Every active model delivered to Discord
- Pre-market origination plays
- Full model breakdowns & edge explanations
- Picks delivered via Discord
- Discord community access
- Verified CLV tracking
Pick Your Sport
Just want one? Every pick delivered straight to Discord.
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Picks delivered via Discord
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Picks delivered via Discord
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
- Pre-market plays
- Edge breakdowns
- Picks delivered via Discord
- CLV tracked
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