Our K props model prices pitcher strikeout totals from velocity, movement, and batter swing-and-miss tendencies, before books adjust for public narrative.
K props are priced by books around narratives and usage trends. We price them from the matchup itself.
Strikeouts come from stuff: velocity, movement, and the ability to generate whiffs. We model each pitcher's swing-and-miss rate by pitch type, weighted to recent outings.
Not all lineups strikeout the same way. We profile each team's lineup for K-rate, chase rate, and contact quality against specific pitch types, matching pitcher arsenal to lineup weakness.
Pitch count, opposing lineup depth, park strikeout environment, and game state all shift the K total. We account for these factors on every play.
From pitcher stuff to a betting edge on strikeout totals. Five stages, no black boxes.
K props start with the pitcher's ability to generate whiffs. We score each starter on recent swinging-strike rate, velocity trend, and movement by pitch type, weighted to the last 30 days.
A pitcher's season-long strikeout rate can mask what he's been doing lately. A soft June can be followed by an elite July when velocity returns or a new pitch grips. Our model weights recent outings most heavily.
Every lineup has a different vulnerability to strikeouts. We profile each team's K-rate against right-handed and left-handed pitchers, and against specific pitch arsenals.
A lineup that strikes out at 23% overall may strike out at 27% against slider-heavy right-handers with high velocity, because their pull hitters chase breaking balls out of the zone. We capture this at the arsenal level.
When a pitcher with elite slider movement faces a lineup with high chase rate and poor contact against breaking balls, the strikeout model picks up the edge.
The matrix intersection: pitcher SwStr% against lineup chase rate for the same pitch type, is the core of the K projection. We calculate this intersection for every pitch type in the starter's arsenal and weight by usage.
A pitcher going deep into a game with a tired lineup in the 6th and 7th inning is not the same situation as a quick exit. Pitch count, weather, and park strikeout rate all matter.
Context factors shift the K projection up or down from the matchup matrix baseline. They are applied additively, each independent of the others, and calibrated from historical data at the park and condition level.
Books set K prop lines around usage trends and public narratives. An ace who went 9 innings his last start gets a high line whether or not the matchup supports it. We price from the matchup matrix and find edge where narrative and reality diverge.
We require a minimum edge threshold before releasing a K prop. Not every starter has a play. When the book line accurately prices the matchup, we pass. Volume is not the goal, precision is.
Debut season with 523 units wagered, consistent edge across all five starter tiers. Logged against closing line value.
K Props launch in April. A full schedule means 1-3 picks almost every day through October. The edge compounds over volume. Subscribe now and be ready from day one.
Get K PropsDaily K prop selections with full pitcher stuff scores, lineup profiles, and matchup context, released before the market moves.
Plays posted when K prop lines become available, opening day through the postseason. Only plays that clear our minimum edge threshold are released, typically 1-3 per slate depending on the card.
Every release includes the pitcher's full stuff score breakdown, velocity by pitch type, SwStr%, and the recency-weighted model score out of 100. Understand exactly why each play was released.
Each card includes the opposing lineup's K/PA, chase rate, and contact rate against the pitcher's specific arsenal type, and the matrix intersection that generated the K projection.
All K prop picks land directly in the Whizard subscriber Discord. Each post includes the full model output card, edge percentage, and context factor summary.
Full K prop selections from opening day through the postseason. Stuff scores, matchup matrix, and context factors included in every release.