Our K props model originates its own strikeout line by pricing each plate appearance individually, matching pitcher pitch mix against each batter's swing tendencies, then summing to a full K distribution. Books price narrative. We price the matchup.
K props move on narratives and recent starts. Our pricing comes from the matchup, one plate appearance at a time.
Before lineups confirm, we project the expected 9-man batting order using recency-weighted slot frequencies from the last 50 games, with a 7-day half-life. Platoon splits match the starter's handedness. This captures early-line edge before the lineup is publicly confirmed.
Each plate appearance gets its own XGBoost prediction. The batter's K-rate and whiff features are constructed by weighting their pitch-type-specific stats by the pitcher's actual arsenal usage. A batter who struggles against sliders gets that weighted appropriately when facing a slider-heavy pitcher. TTO (times through order) is the top predictive feature.
With P(K_i) for every PA in hand, we run Monte Carlo simulations of the full game. Each simulation draws a Bernoulli outcome per PA and sums to a K total. Across thousands of runs, the resulting distribution gives precise P(over/under) at any line.
From lineup projection to a K distribution, traced through five stages.
K prop pricing starts before lineups are confirmed. We project the expected 9-man batting order using recency-weighted slot frequencies from the last 50 team games, with a 7-day half-life. Lineup changes snap in fast.
Platoon filtering selects only games where the opposing pitcher threw from the same hand as today's starter. Players absent 21+ days are excluded as likely IL or traded. The result is a projected order closely matching what gets confirmed, available the moment early lines drop.
How deep a starter goes changes the K total more than most individual matchup factors. We estimate expected PA count with a Bayesian three-factor model: pitcher's shrunk recent mean (730-day window), team hook factor (manager leash tendency), and opponent OBP/K-rate adjustment.
PA count uncertainty feeds directly into the simulation. A starter with unpredictable depth produces a wider K distribution, preventing the model from being overconfident on pitchers who might get pulled in the 4th or go 8 innings.
Each projected PA is scored independently by XGBoost with its own feature vector. The batter's K-rate and whiff features are built by weighting their pitch-type-specific stats by the pitcher's actual arsenal usage. If the pitcher throws 35% sliders, the batter's slider K rate contributes 35% to that feature. Each PA also carries its own TTO value.
The top SHAP feature is TTO (times through order): K rates drop measurably on the 2nd and 3rd trip through the lineup. A starter projected to face the order 2.7 times has a structurally different K profile than one going 2 times flat.
With P(K_i) scored for every projected PA, we run Monte Carlo simulations of the full game. Each simulation draws a Bernoulli outcome for each PA independently and sums to a K total. Thousands of runs build the full K distribution.
The resulting distribution gives precise P(over/under) at any line without any distributional assumption. The simulation naturally captures variance from PA count uncertainty and the spread of individual batter K probabilities across the lineup.
Books set K prop lines around usage trends and public narratives. An ace who went 9 innings last start gets a high line whether or not the matchup supports it. We price from the NegBin distribution and find edge where narrative and reality diverge.
We require a minimum edge threshold before releasing a K prop. Not every starter has a play. When the book line accurately prices the matchup, we pass and would rather release nothing than force a marginal edge.
Full 2025 season. 877 plays logged, consistent edge from April through October.
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Get K PropsDaily K prop selections with full pitcher profiles, batter matchup context, and PA-level model output. Released before the market moves.
Plays posted when K prop lines become available, opening day through the postseason. Only plays that clear our minimum edge threshold are released, typically 1-3 per slate depending on the card.
Every release includes the pitcher's pitch-mix-weighted whiff and K features, the opposing lineup's K profiles weighted by arsenal, and the XGBoost per-PA output. Understand exactly why each play was released.
Each card shows the full K projection, the model's P(over) at the book line, and the edge percentage after devigging, with the Monte Carlo distribution behind every number we release.
All K prop picks land directly in the Whizard subscriber Discord. Each post includes the full model output card, edge percentage, and context summary.
Daily K prop selections from now through October. Pitcher profiles, batter matchup context, and full K distribution included in every release.