An NBA points model built from usage, matchup, and game-script data. Books anchor to ceiling outcomes. The model prices the median, which consistently sits below the line.
Each pillar captures a systematic inefficiency in how sportsbooks price NBA player points props.
Points come from minutes and usage. We model expected playing time and touch rate as a foundation, then layer matchup and pace adjustments on top. When books miss on projected minutes, that's our edge.
Every defender has a points-allowed rate against specific offensive roles. A wing scorer facing a weak perimeter defender is priced differently than facing an elite wing stopper.
Books anchor to ceiling scenarios: the game where a star plays full minutes in a close contest. The model prices the median outcome. That median consistently lands below the book line, which is where the value concentrates.
From minutes projection to a final edge. Five stages, fully traceable.
Minutes are the foundation. A player on a back-to-back, in a game where they're a double-digit favorite, does not play 36 minutes. We model expected playing time before setting a point projection.
The books anchor to season average minutes. We adjust for back-to-back fatigue, blowout probability, and opponent pace before we touch the scoring formula. Starting from the wrong minute total poisons every downstream estimate.
Usage rate tells us how often a player touches the ball each possession. Against zone defenses or rim protectors, usage shifts within the team. We model the redistribution for each matchup.
When a primary ball-handler is defended heavily, usage flows to secondary options. We track how usage redistributes across a roster, not just at the individual player level.
A player's scoring depends partly on who's guarding them. We rate every defender by points-allowed per 100 possessions against players of each offensive role.
An elite PG defender suppresses point totals by 2-3 points vs. the average matchup. A weak wing defender inflates them. The market price rarely reflects these individual matchup gaps accurately.
Game context shapes individual statistics in predictable ways. Blowout risks, back-to-backs, and motivation factors all shift our projections from baseline.
These are not soft qualitative adjustments. Each scenario has a quantified historical impact on minutes and usage, applied directly to the point projection before final output.
Books set lines around ceiling outcomes: the game where a star plays 36 minutes in a competitive, full-pace contest. Those games happen, but they are not the median. When the spread is wide, when a team is on a back-to-back, when a closer lineup isn't needed, minutes come down and points follow.
The model distribution is built from median outcomes. The book's implied distribution is consistently shifted right toward ceiling games. The separation between those two centers is what generates the edge on the under side.
First full season tracked. High-confidence selections have separated meaningfully from the broader market.
Every pick includes the full model output. Projected points, usage rate, matchup grade, and edge size. The reasoning is visible before you place the bet, not just a number with no context behind it.
Get NBA PropsDaily NBA points props with tiered selections, under-weighted releases, and game-script context, delivered to Discord.
Player points props posted when lines become available for each slate, timed to capture opening numbers before prop market movement. That timing is where the edge lives.
Every release is tiered by edge confidence. Standard selections (all edges above threshold) and Elite selections (edge ≥7%) are labeled separately. Elite tier is hitting 73.7% this season.
Releases skew toward under-side value by design. Each play includes the specific reason: minutes suppression from blowout risk, back-to-back fatigue, or a matchup that limits ceiling scoring.
All picks land directly in the Whizard subscriber Discord. Each post includes the model projection, the edge %, tier designation, and game script context flags.
NBA props available through the playoffs. Available individually or as part of the All Access bundle.