Five seasons of spread modeling across every D1 game, built from efficiency data and priced independently of public line movement.
Five seasons of data across every D1 matchup. Each layer isolates a signal the public betting market systematically misprice.
Offensive and defensive efficiency per possession, adjusted for opponent quality. We measure true scoring rates, not box scores inflated by fast-paced blowouts.
Home court advantage is real but team-specific. Cameron Indoor is different from a neutral gym. We model venue effects per program, not a league-wide constant.
56% of our lines move toward our number after release. We target the opening line before public money adjusts it. CLV is our confirmation of real edge.
From efficiency data to closing line value. Five stages, no black boxes.
Every spread starts with a single number: how efficiently does this team score vs. how efficiently does their opponent defend? Points per 100 possessions, adjusted for schedule.
The margin between each team's offensive efficiency and the opponent's defensive efficiency, combined across both sides of the matchup, gives a clean model spread before any other adjustments. This is the foundation. Everything else refines it.
Fast teams playing slow opponents don't get to run their offense. We normalize both teams to the projected game pace, not their season averages.
Each team's efficiency is calculated at possessions per 100 — a rate stat. But the actual number of possessions in the game determines how those rates translate to raw point differences. We project the game pace first, then apply both teams' efficiencies at that pace rather than their individual season averages.
The standard assumption is +3 points at home. Our data shows it ranges from +1.5 to +5.2 depending on program. We apply team-specific values, not a constant.
Flagship programs with historic arenas and devoted fanbases generate measurably larger home advantages than mid-major programs. Applying a flat +3 to every team overpays for some home teams and underpays for others, a systematic mispricing that our model corrects.
Certain game contexts create predictable mispricing. Rivalry games inflate public lines. Hangover spots after emotional wins see efficiency drops. We model these explicitly.
These overlays are applied to the model spread after base efficiency and home court are established. They represent measured tendencies from historical games in comparable contexts, not arbitrary adjustments.
When our model line diverges from the book by 2+ points and the opening hasn't moved yet, that's our window. We track 56% CLV confirming consistent market edge.
CLV is measured at close — the final number after all public and sharp money has moved the line. When the line closes toward our number, that's independent market confirmation that our model identified real information, not noise. Five seasons of 56% CLV across nearly 4,200 plays is a robust signal.
Line moved to −6.0 at close · +1.5 pts CLV confirmed
Five seasons logged against closing line value. 56% CLV across nearly 4,200 plays is independent confirmation the model prices edge real markets eventually agree with.
2025-26 season in progress. Best season in model history: 2023-24 (+126.3u).
Daily spread picks with model line, book line, edge size, and home court flag — released before line movement.
Picks for each day's slate are released every morning ahead of typical line movement. Early access is how you capture the opening number — before 56% of our lines move in our direction.
Every release shows our model spread, the book opening, and the gap in points. You see exactly how large the edge is and why it clears our threshold — no ambiguity.
Each pick card flags whether our model's home court value for the home team differs materially from the market's assumed constant. When we see a mispriced home court, it's noted explicitly.
All picks land directly in the Whizard subscriber Discord. Each post includes the model output card, edge breakdown, and unit recommendation. Available now through conference tournaments.
NCAAB Spreads available now through conference tournaments.